US forces are set to withdraw from their remaining bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending a more than two-decade military presence that has cost thousands of American lives and reshaped the country’s security landscape.
The withdrawal, agreed in 2024 under then-President Joe Biden and being implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration, is being welcomed by Iran and its allies as a victory, while Iraqi security officials warn it could create space for Iran-backed groups and Islamic State militants to strengthen their positions.
Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli said Iran stood to benefit strategically from the departure because the US military presence had for years served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.
He said pro-Iranian militia groups were likely to portray the withdrawal as a victory and seek greater influence over security and political decisions.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions, described the withdrawal as a “historic victory” for the groups and a defeat for the United States.
However, some Iraqi officials and community leaders said the country was not yet prepared to assume full responsibility for security without the US-led coalition.
“We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,” Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, told Reuters.
He said Iraqis wanted full sovereignty but feared that the withdrawal could create a security vacuum.
US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and remained in the country until their withdrawal in 2011. They returned less than three years later to support Iraqi forces in the fight against Islamic State, which seized large parts of Iraq between 2014 and 2017.
Iraq has since maintained close political and military ties with both Washington and Tehran, at times becoming a battleground for their competing interests.
The United States killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike near Baghdad airport, after which Iran-backed groups repeatedly attacked US positions in Iraq, prompting American reprisals.
READ ALSO: Trump Orders Pentagon To Reduce US-South Korea Drills
In the current war against Iran, seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed were in Iraq. The latest was an Army sergeant who died in July during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil.
Iran Welcomes Withdrawal
Iran has described the US departure as a victory for its network of allied armed groups across the region.
Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s Parliament National Security Commission, said on Monday that lasting security would prevail in Iraq once American forces left the country and the wider region.
Washington has accused Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups of contributing to the wider Middle East conflict through attacks on neighbouring countries. The Iraqi government has said it is working to curb their influence.
Concerns Over Islamic State
Iraqi security officials in the federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have also warned that the US withdrawal could provide an opportunity for Islamic State militants to regroup.
Although the group lost its territorial stronghold nearly a decade ago, it retains sleeper cells in Iraq.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said the withdrawal could deprive Iraqi forces of US intelligence, logistical support and drone capabilities needed to counter the militants.
He said security forces had observed increased movement by Islamic State sleeper cells after the planned withdrawal was announced.
Iraqi security forces also said a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the US departure.
Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the suspected plot showed that Islamic State remained capable of exploiting security gaps and seeking to demonstrate that it could still carry out major attacks.
