The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), outlining Nigeria’s key economic targets, projected revenues, and fiscal direction for the next three years.
Addressing State House correspondents after the Council meeting chaired by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, said the framework was jointly presented by the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation and senior officials of his ministry.
Bagudu disclosed that the Council approved a crude oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, while a more cautious benchmark of 1.8 million barrels per day will guide budgetary planning.
“The first time, a target oil production as well as benchmark oil production is a production figure of 2.06 million barrels per day, which the management of the oil industry is tasked to produce; however, so that we don’t run into revenue problems, we use a benchmark oil production figure of 1.8 for budget purposes,” he explained.
The Council also endorsed an oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel and a projected exchange rate of ₦1,512 to $1 for the 2026 fiscal year.
“But for caution, we are using $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of 1,512 to the naira for 2026, given that it is a pre-election year, with expected election activities that typically affect the exchange rate. The gross rate is projected at $4.68. The Federation’s total revenue is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion,” Bagudu stated.
The minister said the federal government’s projected revenue for 2026 is ₦34.33 trillion, reflecting efforts to boost non-oil earnings, strengthen tax administration, and expand the nation’s economic base.
Nigeria’s total revenue from all sources is projected at ₦34.33 trillion, inclusive of ₦4.98 trillion returned. This represents a 16% decrease compared with the 2025 budget estimate. The breakdown of federal government expenditure shows statutory transfers of around ₦3 trillion, debt service expenditure of ₦10.91 trillion, and non-recurrent personnel costs of about ₦15.27 trillion.
The deficit is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, equivalent to 3.61% of the estimated GDP.
Bagudu explained that the exchange rate assumption considered the pre-election year, and that all parameters were derived from extensive fiscal and macroeconomic analyses conducted by the Budget Office and relevant agencies.
“In addition, the Federal Executive Council reviewed and approved the medium-term expenditure planners and the Fiscal Strategy Paper for presentation to the National Assembly,” he added.
He noted that President Tinubu has also taken steps as head of the Federation to enhance collaboration between the three tiers of government, convening the National Economic Council to improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. The coordinating minister of the economy, the Central Bank governor, and Bagudu were directed to meet periodically with the Council’s board.
Bagudu said the FEC reviewed ministerial comments and subsequently approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which establishes spending limits to ensure disciplined budgeting.
The minister also highlighted that President Tinubu sought NEC approval to increase vigilance across the Federation to curb revenue leakages in the oil and gas sector and critical mineral exploitation.
“Mr President sought the approval of the National Economic Council, and it indeed approved that there should be increased Federation vigilance to eliminate revenue loss from illegal activities in the oil and gas sectors, as well as critical mineral sectors,” he said.
President Tinubu further emphasised the need for substantial transformational investment in national infrastructure. Bagudu said the president believes that with macroeconomic stability taking root, ongoing reforms must be sustained.
He noted that once the measures outlined in the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper are fully implemented, they will catalyse stronger and sustained economic growth.
The minister added that the president also called for renewed infrastructure funding from both the federal government and other tiers of the Federation, alongside measures to boost domestic production and ensure diligent implementation of the renewed workforce development programme.
