The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 71.4 per cent, from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 400,000 bpd, amid a weaker outlook for oil consumption.
However, OPEC expects demand growth to rebound to 1.7 million bpd in 2027, supported by pent-up demand.
According to Reuters, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais announced the revised forecast on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, attributing the adjustment to developments in the global oil market.
Al Ghais said the organisation expected pent-up demand to materialise in 2027, with growth projected to reach 1.7 million bpd, according to reports by APA and TASS.
The revised projection represents a reduction of one million bpd in expected demand growth for 2026. It does not, however, indicate a decline in total global oil consumption, but rather a slower increase than previously anticipated.
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Al Ghais made the announcement as energy industry leaders gathered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the 25th World Petroleum Congress, amid geopolitical tensions, volatile crude prices and concerns about energy supply security.
Despite the weaker demand outlook, oil prices remained elevated. Brent crude futures traded at around 106.19 dollars per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at approximately 92.96 dollars per barrel at 12:24 p.m. West Africa Time on Monday, according to Reuters market reporting and ICE price data.
The quotations were intraday prices, not closing figures, and reflected the influence of geopolitical supply risks on the market despite weaker expectations for demand growth.
Slower demand growth could intensify competition among oil producers for market share, particularly if supply outpaces consumption. However, the revised forecast alone does not establish that a global oil surplus will emerge, as the eventual market balance will also depend on production levels, supply disruptions, inventory changes and consumption in major importing economies.
For Nigeria, the impact will depend partly on how the weaker demand outlook affects crude export demand and international oil prices. Slower consumption growth could put pressure on export earnings if it leads to lower prices or greater competition among suppliers.
Conversely, geopolitical disruptions and supply constraints could keep prices elevated despite weaker demand expectations.
Although OPEC projects stronger demand growth in 2027, the anticipated recovery will depend on global economic conditions, consumption patterns and developments in energy markets.
