US President Donald Trump has ruled out fresh attacks on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, saying Washington is holding “productive discussions” with Tehran, although the US naval blockade will remain in force.
Trump made the announcement in a Truth Social post on October 8, amid reports that his administration was considering renewed military action before the elections.
He also claimed that 22 million barrels of oil had passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, although shipping through the strategic waterway remains disrupted by the ongoing conflict.
The conflict began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Trump’s announcement, however, does not constitute a ceasefire or guarantee an end to hostilities.
Diplomatic efforts remain uncertain, with Iran’s Tasnim news agency reporting that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was reviewing Washington’s response to a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.
Differences over uranium enrichment and Iran’s nuclear stockpile continue to complicate negotiations, while Washington maintains economic pressure on Tehran.
On October 8, the US Treasury announced sanctions targeting 17 vessels and associated individuals and networks accused of facilitating the transportation of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals.
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The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has continued to affect global energy markets. Oil prices eased on Friday following Trump’s announcement, as traders assessed the prospects of reduced military escalation.
Brent crude fell 0.7 per cent to $103.53 a barrel in early trading before slipping to $103.25 in Singapore, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.6 per cent to $90.97.
The declines followed gains on Thursday, when Brent rose 4.1 per cent to settle at $104.28 a barrel and WTI gained 3.6 per cent to $91.49.
Despite the price retreat, supply concerns persist because the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global oil and fuel shipments before the conflict.
Kpler data cited in market reports showed crude flows through the strait stood at 10.1 million barrels per day on October 6, down 27 per cent from the previous week and equivalent to about 74 per cent of pre-war levels. Only seven commodity-carrying vessels crossed the waterway that day, the lowest daily total since July 23.
Maritime security concerns have also intensified, with at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers reported between September 28 and October 5, according to figures attributed to maritime security sources.
For oil-importing countries, including Nigeria, lower crude prices could ease import costs. However, high freight charges, war-risk insurance premiums and shipping delays could limit the benefits.
A sustained decline in oil prices will depend on progress in negotiations, improved security in the Strait of Hormuz and a recovery in regional exports.
Trump’s pledge signals a pause in immediate military escalation before the US elections, but the possibility of further action remains if diplomatic efforts fail.
